The internet is glutted with articles about whether Switch will succeed or not succeed. The feeling now is that since it sold 5 million in just 4 months, it will be quite successful and become the second most successful console of this generation, behind the PS4. I thought about this Switch topic, because I was actually able to order one yesterday, and pick up one today (this is in the Philadelphia and surrounding areas).
I admit I was hyped, but upon thinking about the fact there are NO games that I want on the Switch, I didn't order it. When I informed my friend about it, he was so blase about it that I might as well have told him that the sky is blue. The fact that I didn't, and neither my friend (huge Nintendo fan since he was 3 years old watching his older brothers play), was a huge red flag, as we are both one of the few Wii U owners who love our Wii U's.
I think that due to the Switch not being out there, that's one reason why it might not do well. When I went to parties, invariably there's a Wii and we would play Wii Sports, which was such a great party game as it's universally appealing. Who doesn't enjoy playing tennis, golf, and so forth. This word of mouth leads to further sales. I would've bought one immediately, but I was in my banning video games stage since I wanted to work on my career.
In contrast to my Wii experiences, due to Switch scarcity and no Oprah Winfrey to push the product like she did the Wii, I only saw one person with a Switch, who is a gas attendant. We only came to discussing video games when he saw me with the XBox Elite controller box on my lap. Of course we talked about video games and what consoles we play on. He quickly showed me his Switch. If I didn't have this controller in my lap which he had to notice with eagle eyes (this was at night and the XBox Elite box is black) in such a coincidental way, I would have never seen a Switch live to this day.
But I could only see it for a few seconds as there are other people waiting (so much different from a party experience), and I was literally afraid to touch it because it looked so delicate and vulnerable. I had to make sure it's protected. Instead of exploring the Switch, I immediately asked him if it has a screen protector and case, because I was afraid it would break, which he said yes.
Relieved that it's protected (though it still looked fragile), I was still anxious, so I kept telling him over and over to make sure he secures it at work, as this is something that someone will steal, given the scarcity and price. I was nervous for him, rather than having fun playing on the Switch. My Switch experience is a very different one than my Wii experiences, where I would play the Wii for a long time with other friends, without guilt.
Further, there are no Switch's in demonstration, even at GameStop. I went to one GameStop, and thought they didn't have one to demonstrate because of the scarcity. However, going to other GameStops, there are no live Switch's to test out.
I really can't see parents, on the fence due to the price being more than a bundled PS4 and XBox One, buying a Switch without testing the durability. Who wants to waste $299 and have your child break it? Especially when you can get the other consoles that are not only cheaper, but have more games? Do you see the need for parents to try the thing out? I can see the same parents scratching their heads about the Switch, and then testing out the PS4 and XBox One, their kids being excited about one or both of the consoles, and the family taking one home. Even if they still want the Switch, they can't buy one since there's no availability.
But what about the Japanese market? I felt that Japan could carry, and it can reach 30 million plus on the strength of Japan alone. However, the nail in the coffin is when NihongoGamer, very intelligent and insightful YouTuber living in Japan, mentioned that only 10% of Japanese Switch owners take the Switch to work, and that the other 90% play on smartphones (I apologize, I can't find the exact video, but I included his home channel as he's very insightful). Adding to the problem is that Monster Hunter: World will not be coming to the Switch. In Japan, Monster Hunter is a system seller.
NihongoGamer did make the caveat that if the Switch comes out with a portable, smaller form, then there'll be more mini-Switches in the wild. So if the Switch doesn't have the portability factor, it may not capture the Japanese market like the 3DS. Further, if it's hard to get a Switch, why not use your smartphones since you can play games, watch videos, and text all at the same time, great time killers when riding public transportation.
Other stumbling blocks to the success of the Switch are the cost and the lack of games. Even if the Switch were reduced to $150 with a triple A game (not an unwanted game such as a Nintendoland), which will make it competitive to the PS4 and the XBox One, it still may not sell well due to the lack of games, which is why I didn't buy one. The rationale for the $150 is that it comes to $250 with the mandatory accessories. The PS4 and XBox One are invariably bundled with AAA games such as CoD, Destiny 2, Uncharted 4, and so forth at $250.
Parents wanting to buy a Switch for their kids, if they can't get one, they'll just get a PS4 or XBox One. Further, kids these days appear to be more intrigued by FPS (helped by Overwatch, as it has the fun colors AND FPS gameplay, and the characters look "cooller" than the squid-like kids of Splatoon) than Mario and Zelda, so I can't see any kids having a temper tantrum if they can't get a Switch, if their parents are willing to buy them another console. Why not buy the other consoles, as the competitors not only have significantly larger libraries, but are cheaper and more durable than the Switch?
For portable experiences, parents will just lend their kids their smart phones, which are pretty hardy and don't break if they drop it on the floor. I see kids all the time perfectly happy (in fact, they get upset if they can't play on their parents' phones) playing video games and/or watching YouTube on the smart phone.
Right now, if things continue the way they are, the Switch won't be successful. I know I'm waffling, but things may change to make it successful. If it's reduced in price to $150, has the 3DS games library (i.e. Nintendo will have to stop supporting the 3DS) and have demo units with physical Switch's available for people to test, it may be successful and may sell like the 3DS. But if Nintendo is stubborn in refusing to reduce the price (like they did with the Wii U), I think it'll only sell 20 million.
The good news for Nintendo fans is that I'm like Michael Pachter (whose predictions are almost always wrong, which is a running joke on the internet), so the Switch might actually sell like hotcakes and sell 100 million!
The How of Happiness Review
I admit I was hyped, but upon thinking about the fact there are NO games that I want on the Switch, I didn't order it. When I informed my friend about it, he was so blase about it that I might as well have told him that the sky is blue. The fact that I didn't, and neither my friend (huge Nintendo fan since he was 3 years old watching his older brothers play), was a huge red flag, as we are both one of the few Wii U owners who love our Wii U's.
I think that due to the Switch not being out there, that's one reason why it might not do well. When I went to parties, invariably there's a Wii and we would play Wii Sports, which was such a great party game as it's universally appealing. Who doesn't enjoy playing tennis, golf, and so forth. This word of mouth leads to further sales. I would've bought one immediately, but I was in my banning video games stage since I wanted to work on my career.
In contrast to my Wii experiences, due to Switch scarcity and no Oprah Winfrey to push the product like she did the Wii, I only saw one person with a Switch, who is a gas attendant. We only came to discussing video games when he saw me with the XBox Elite controller box on my lap. Of course we talked about video games and what consoles we play on. He quickly showed me his Switch. If I didn't have this controller in my lap which he had to notice with eagle eyes (this was at night and the XBox Elite box is black) in such a coincidental way, I would have never seen a Switch live to this day.
But I could only see it for a few seconds as there are other people waiting (so much different from a party experience), and I was literally afraid to touch it because it looked so delicate and vulnerable. I had to make sure it's protected. Instead of exploring the Switch, I immediately asked him if it has a screen protector and case, because I was afraid it would break, which he said yes.
Relieved that it's protected (though it still looked fragile), I was still anxious, so I kept telling him over and over to make sure he secures it at work, as this is something that someone will steal, given the scarcity and price. I was nervous for him, rather than having fun playing on the Switch. My Switch experience is a very different one than my Wii experiences, where I would play the Wii for a long time with other friends, without guilt.
Further, there are no Switch's in demonstration, even at GameStop. I went to one GameStop, and thought they didn't have one to demonstrate because of the scarcity. However, going to other GameStops, there are no live Switch's to test out.
I really can't see parents, on the fence due to the price being more than a bundled PS4 and XBox One, buying a Switch without testing the durability. Who wants to waste $299 and have your child break it? Especially when you can get the other consoles that are not only cheaper, but have more games? Do you see the need for parents to try the thing out? I can see the same parents scratching their heads about the Switch, and then testing out the PS4 and XBox One, their kids being excited about one or both of the consoles, and the family taking one home. Even if they still want the Switch, they can't buy one since there's no availability.
But what about the Japanese market? I felt that Japan could carry, and it can reach 30 million plus on the strength of Japan alone. However, the nail in the coffin is when NihongoGamer, very intelligent and insightful YouTuber living in Japan, mentioned that only 10% of Japanese Switch owners take the Switch to work, and that the other 90% play on smartphones (I apologize, I can't find the exact video, but I included his home channel as he's very insightful). Adding to the problem is that Monster Hunter: World will not be coming to the Switch. In Japan, Monster Hunter is a system seller.
NihongoGamer did make the caveat that if the Switch comes out with a portable, smaller form, then there'll be more mini-Switches in the wild. So if the Switch doesn't have the portability factor, it may not capture the Japanese market like the 3DS. Further, if it's hard to get a Switch, why not use your smartphones since you can play games, watch videos, and text all at the same time, great time killers when riding public transportation.
Other stumbling blocks to the success of the Switch are the cost and the lack of games. Even if the Switch were reduced to $150 with a triple A game (not an unwanted game such as a Nintendoland), which will make it competitive to the PS4 and the XBox One, it still may not sell well due to the lack of games, which is why I didn't buy one. The rationale for the $150 is that it comes to $250 with the mandatory accessories. The PS4 and XBox One are invariably bundled with AAA games such as CoD, Destiny 2, Uncharted 4, and so forth at $250.
Parents wanting to buy a Switch for their kids, if they can't get one, they'll just get a PS4 or XBox One. Further, kids these days appear to be more intrigued by FPS (helped by Overwatch, as it has the fun colors AND FPS gameplay, and the characters look "cooller" than the squid-like kids of Splatoon) than Mario and Zelda, so I can't see any kids having a temper tantrum if they can't get a Switch, if their parents are willing to buy them another console. Why not buy the other consoles, as the competitors not only have significantly larger libraries, but are cheaper and more durable than the Switch?
For portable experiences, parents will just lend their kids their smart phones, which are pretty hardy and don't break if they drop it on the floor. I see kids all the time perfectly happy (in fact, they get upset if they can't play on their parents' phones) playing video games and/or watching YouTube on the smart phone.
Right now, if things continue the way they are, the Switch won't be successful. I know I'm waffling, but things may change to make it successful. If it's reduced in price to $150, has the 3DS games library (i.e. Nintendo will have to stop supporting the 3DS) and have demo units with physical Switch's available for people to test, it may be successful and may sell like the 3DS. But if Nintendo is stubborn in refusing to reduce the price (like they did with the Wii U), I think it'll only sell 20 million.
The good news for Nintendo fans is that I'm like Michael Pachter (whose predictions are almost always wrong, which is a running joke on the internet), so the Switch might actually sell like hotcakes and sell 100 million!
The How of Happiness Review
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